Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

Anuario Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales

Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez¹  Ramón Rodríguez−Betancourt²  Asterio Denis Barbaru−Grajales² 

[1] IUniversidad Nacional de Chimborazo, Ecuador;Profesor Invitado de la Universidad Técnica “Luis Vargas Torres” de Esmeraldas, Ecuador;

关键词: ARIMA;    GDP;    tendency;    economy;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

【 授权许可】

Unknown