Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

PeerJ

Rodrigo López¹  Hernán Pastore²  Mauricio Soto-Gamboa³  Sergio A. Estay³  Paulo Corti⁴  Carlos Riquelme⁵ 

[1] Aumen ONG, Coyhaique, Chile;Dirección Regional Patagonia Norte, Administración de Parques Nacionales, San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina;Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile;Laboratorio de Manejo y Conservación de Vida Silvestre, Instituto de Ciencia Animal y Programa de Investigación Aplicada en Fauna Silvestre, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile;Programa de Magíster en Ecología Aplicada, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile;

关键词: Climate change;    Ungulates;    Protected areas;    Endangered species;    Species distribution models;    Conservation;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.5222

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Background Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range. Methods To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. Results Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios. Discussion Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

【 授权许可】

Unknown