Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

PeerJ

article

Carlos Riquelme¹  Sergio A. Estay³  Rodrigo López⁵  Hernán Pastore⁶  Mauricio Soto-Gamboa¹  Paulo Corti² 

[1] Programa de Magíster en Ecología Aplicada, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile;Laboratorio de Manejo y Conservación de Vida Silvestre, Instituto de Ciencia Animal y Programa de Investigación Aplicada en Fauna Silvestre, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile;Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile;Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability ,(CAPES), Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile;Aumen ONG;Dirección Regional Patagonia Norte

关键词: Climate change;    Ungulates;    Protected areas;    Endangered species;    Species distribution models;    Conservation;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.5222

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundClimate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.MethodsTo estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.ResultsBased on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.DiscussionModeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

【 授权许可】

CC BY