Economics of Neuraminidase Inhibitor Stockpiling for Pandemic Influenza, Singapore

Emerging Infectious Diseases

关键词: Influenza;    Treatment;    Prophylaxis;    Cost-benefit;    Cost-effectiveness;    Policy;   

DOI  :  10.3201/eid1201.050556

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

We compared strategies for stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors to treat and prevent influenza in Singapore. Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, with Monte Carlo simulations, were used to determine economic outcomes. A pandemic in a population of 4.2 million would result in an estimated 525–1,775 deaths, 10,700–38,600 hospitalization days, and economic costs of $0.7 to $2.2 billion Singapore dollars. The treatment-only strategy had optimal economic benefits: stockpiles of antiviral agents for 40% of the population would save an estimated 418 lives and $414 million, at a cost of $52.6 million per shelf-life cycle of the stockpile. Prophylaxis was economically beneficial in high-risk subpopulations, which account for 78% of deaths, and in pandemics in which the death rate was >0.6%. Prophylaxis for pandemics with a 5% case-fatality rate would save 50,000 lives and $81 billion. These models can help policymakers weigh the options for pandemic planning.

【 授权许可】

Unknown