Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

Sustainability

Carmelo Conesa-García¹  Alberto Martínez-Salvador¹  Agustín Millares²  Joris P. C. Eekhout³ 

[1] Department of Geography, University of Murcia, 30001 Murcia, Spain;Group of Environmental Fluid Dynamics, Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research (IISTA), University of Granada, 18006 Granada, Spain;Soil and Water Conservation Research Group, Centro de Edafología y Biología Aplicada del Segura (CEBAS), Spanish Research Council (CSIC), 30100 Murcia, Spain;

关键词: climate change;    SWAT model;    EURO-CORDEX;    bias correction methods;    Segura basin;    ephemeral streams;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su13137120

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.

【 授权许可】

Unknown