Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

BMC Infectious Diseases

Marcelino Santos-Neto¹  Hamilton Leandro Pinto de Andrade¹  Mellina Yamamura²  Inês Fronteira³  Miguel Fuentealba-Torres⁴  Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos⁵  Juliane de Almeida Crispim⁵  Márcio Souza dos Santos⁵  Aline Aparecida Monroe⁵  Pedro Fredemir Palha⁵  Luiz Henrique Arroyo⁵  Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio⁵  Regina Célia Fiorati⁶  Dulce Gomes⁷ 

[1] Federal University of Maranhão;Federal University of São Carlos;Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical da Universidade Nova de Lisboa;Universidad de Los Andes;University of São Paulo College of Nursing at Ribeirão Preto;University of São Paulo School of Medicine at Ribeirão Preto;University of Évora Mathematics Department;

关键词: Tuberculosis;    Epidemiology;    Ecological studies;    Time series studies;    Covid-19;    Nursing;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-06978-9

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. Methods This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability. Conclusions The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

【 授权许可】

Unknown