Age-Structured Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic in the USA, UAE and Algeria

Alexandria Engineering Journal

Tarik Mohammed Touaoula¹  Abdessamad Tridane²  Salih Djilali³  Soufiane Bentout⁴ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Laboratoire dAnalyse Non Linéaire et Mathématiques Appliquées, University of Tlemcen, Tlemcen 13000, Algeria;Department of Mathematical Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates;Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Belhadj Bouchaib University Center, Ain Temouchent, BP 284 RP, 46000, Algeria;

关键词: COVID-19;    Age-structured;    SIR model;    Basic reproduction number;    Peak epidemic;    Hospitals capacities;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

As the COVID-19 is still spreading in more than 180 countries, according to WHO. There is a need to understand the dynamics of this infection and predict its the impact on the public health capacity. This work aims to forecast the progress of the disease in three countries from different continents: The United States of America, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria. The existing data shows that the fatality of the disease is high in elderly people and people with comorbidity. Therefore, we consider an age-structured model. Our model also takes into consider two main components of the COVID-19 (a) the number of Infected hospitalized people, therefore, we estimate the number of beds (acute and critical) needed (2) the possible infection of the healthcare personals (HCP). Hence, the model predict the peak time and the number of infectious cases at the peak before and after the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), and we also compare this finding with case of full lockdown. Finally, we investigate the impact of the shortage of proper personal protective equipment (PPE) on the spread of the disease.

【 授权许可】

Unknown