COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics?

Schellekens, Philip ; Sourrouille, Diego

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    MORTALITY;    CAUSE OF DEATH;    CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEAS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9260
RP-ID  :  WPS9260

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

COVID-19 can be described as aheat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable insociety. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable inthe rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world arenot more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of thevirus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated inhigh-income countries. Developing countries represent 85percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of thepandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality createsthe impression that the world is subjected to two differentpandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents theobserved inequality with a new indicator that expressesseverity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues thatthe excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistentwith demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges forinfectivity and fatality suggest that the developing countryshare in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three(from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specificfactors will influence these results but are unlikely tooverturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is thatthe pandemic has yet to run its course through the agedistributions of the world.