Lives and Livelihoods : Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Decerf, Benoit ; Ferreira, Francisco H. G. ; Mahler, Daniel G. ; Sterck, Olivier

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    WELFARE;    POVERTY;    MORTALITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9277
RP-ID  :  WPS9277

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper evaluates the global welfareconsequences of increases in mortality and poverty generatedby the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality aremeasured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY)to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) areconservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 andtwo different scenarios for its distributionalcharacteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metricyields a single parameter that captures the underlyingtrade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs havethe same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view ofthis parameter, estimates of LYs and PYs are compared acrosscountries for different scenarios. Three main findingsarise. First, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and theobserved private and policy responses) has generated atleast 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 millionyears of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs toLYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that thepoverty consequences of the crisis are of paramountimportance. Second, this ratio declines systematically withGDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share ofthe welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, thedominance of poverty over mortality is reversed in acounterfactual "herd immunity" scenario: withoutany policy intervention, LYs tend to be greater than PYs,and the overall welfare losses are greater.