Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

2nd International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences 2013

物理学;数学

Kim, Eungyeong^1 ; Lee, Seok^1 ; Byun, Young Tae^1 ; Kim, Jae Hun^1 ; Lee, Hyuk-Jae^2 ; Lee, Taikjin^1

Sensor System Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST), 136-791 Seoul, Korea, Republic of^1

Nano and Electronic Physics, Kookmin University, 136-702 Seoul, Korea, Republic of^2

关键词: Air traffics;    Economic profit;    Ground transportation systems;    Infectious disease;    Route predictions;    SIR model;    Transmission model;    Transportation system;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/490/1/012108/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/490/1/012108

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics.