Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

VaughnS. Cooper¹  ElenaN. Naumova²  MeghanA. Hartwick³  ErinA. Urquhart³  CherylA. Whistler³  StephenH. Jones³ 

[1] Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA;Division of Nutrition Data Sciences, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA 02111, USA;Northeast Center for Vibrio Disease and Ecology, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA;

关键词: vibrio parahaemolyticus;    seasonality;    seafood illness;    forecasting;    climate change;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph16224341

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Seafood-borne Vibrio parahaemolyticus illness is a global public health issue facing resource managers and the seafood industry. The recent increase in shellfish-borne illnesses in the Northeast United States has resulted in the application of intensive management practices based on a limited understanding of when and where risks are present. We aim to determine the contribution of factors that affect V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) using ten years of surveillance data for environmental and climate conditions in the Great Bay Estuary of New Hampshire from 2007 to 2016. A time series analysis was applied to analyze V. parahaemolyticus concentrations and local environmental predictors and develop predictive models. Whereas many environmental variables correlated with V. parahaemolyticus concentrations, only a few retained significance in capturing trends, seasonality and data variability. The optimal predictive model contained water temperature and pH, photoperiod, and the calendar day of study. The model enabled relatively accurate seasonality-based prediction of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations for 2014−2016 based on the 2007−2013 dataset and captured the increasing trend in extreme values of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations. The developed method enables the informative tracking of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in coastal ecosystems and presents a useful platform for developing area-specific risk forecasting models.

【 授权许可】

Unknown