THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Geo Journal of Tourism and Geosites

article

Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN¹  Mohd Tahir ISMAIL¹  Mosab I. TABASH³ 

[1] Universiti Sains Malaysia, School of Mathematical Science;Mawlana Bashani Science and Technology University, Department of Statistics;Al Ain University, College of Business

关键词: seasonality;    temperature;    modeling;    forecasting;    SANCOVA model;    SARIMA model;   

DOI  :  10.30892/gtg.34103-614

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Editura Universitatii din Oradea / University of Oradea Publishing House

【 摘 要 】

In the present study, we aim to investigate how seasonality influences the climate changes on the outdoor thermal comfort for traveling to visit Bangladesh. Wherein, the effect of temperature on tourist arrival is assessed using SANCOVA and SARIMA model at seven attractive sightseeing diverse places in Bangladesh. The highest temperature has appeared in Khulna and Rajshahi with 35.53 °C and 35.85 °C and the lowest temperature was appeared in Rajshahi and Rangamati with 10.40 °C and 11.72 °C, respectively. This result also revealed that the temperature for Dhaka, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, and Sylhet has extreme values of decreasing, in Dhaka the temperature will be 25.140 °C on January 2023, in Chittagong 260 °C on January 2027, Cox’s Bazar 26.490 °C on January 2030, in Khulna 25.610 °C on January 2023, and in Sylhet 26.560 °C on January 2020. Our findings also indicate that the tourism industry of Bangladesh is more vulnerable to seasonal variation and this seasonality has a 74% effect on tourist’s arrival as well as a 98% effect on overall temperature in Bangladesh.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND