An Effective Strategy and Mathematical Model to Predict the Sustainable Evolution of the Impact of the Pandemic Lockdown

Healthcare

卷:10

Basant Agrawal¹  Khalid Mahmood Malik²  Ramesh Chandra Poonia³  Priyanka Harjule⁴  Muhammad Badruddin Khan⁵  Mozaherul Hoque Abul Hasanat⁵  Abdullah Altameem⁵  Mohammed Alkhathami⁵  Abdul Khader Jilani Saudagar⁵ 

[1] Department of Computer Science Engineering, Indian Institute of Information Technology Kota, MNIT Campus, Jaipur 302017, India;

[2] Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Oakland University, Rochester, MI 48309, USA;

[3] Department of Computer Science, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bangalore 560029, India;

[4] Department of Mathematics, Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur 302017, India;

[5] Information Systems Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia;

关键词: COVID-19;    epidemiology;    mathematical model;    SEIHRD;    ordinary differential equations;   

DOI  :  10.3390/healthcare10050759

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

There have been considerable losses in terms of human and economic resources due to the current coronavirus pandemic. This work, which contributes to the prevention and control of COVID-19, proposes a novel modified epidemiological model that predicts the epidemic’s evolution over time in India. A mathematical model was proposed to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in India during the lockdowns implemented by the government of India during the first and second waves. What makes this study unique, however, is that it develops a conceptual model with time-dependent characteristics, which is peculiar to India’s diverse and homogeneous societies. The results demonstrate that governmental control policies and suitable public perception of risk in terms of social distancing and public health safety measures are required to control the spread of COVID-19 in India. The results also show that India’s two strict consecutive lockdowns (21 days and 19 days, respectively) successfully helped delay the spread of the disease, buying time to pump up healthcare capacities and management skills during the first wave of COVID-19 in India. In addition, the second wave’s severe lockdown put a lot of pressure on the sustainability of many Indian cities. Therefore, the data show that timely implementation of government control laws combined with a high risk perception among the Indian population will help to ensure sustainability. The proposed model is an effective strategy for constructing healthy cities and sustainable societies in India, which will help prevent such a crisis in the future.

【 授权许可】

Unknown