Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China

BMC Public Health

Yang Yang¹  Zhi-Jie Zhang²  Qing Su²  Jie Hong²  Han Zhao³  Hai-Yang Zhang⁴  Ai-Ying Teng⁴  Shi-Xia Zhou⁴  Tian-Le Che⁴  Yuan-Yuan Zhang⁴  Li-Qun Fang⁴  Tao Wang⁴  Wei Liu⁵ 

[1] Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P. R. China;Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, P. R. China;School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P. R. China;State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China;State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China;Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, P. R. China;

关键词: COVID-19;    Prolonged incubation period;    Transmissibility;    Clinical severity;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-021-12337-9

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundCOVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague.MethodsWe analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January–August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity and transmissibility, respectively.ResultAmong local cases, 268 (10.2%) had a prolonged incubation period of > 14 days, which was more frequently seen among elderly patients, those residing in South China, with disease onset after Level I response measures administration, or being exposed in public places. Patients with prolonged incubation period had lower risk of severe illness (ORadjusted = 0.386, 95% CI: 0.203–0.677). A reduced transmissibility was observed for the primary patients with prolonged incubation period (50.4, 95% CI: 32.3–78.6%) than those with an incubation period of ≤14 days.ConclusionsThe study provides evidence supporting a prolonged incubation period that exceeded 2 weeks in over 10% for COVID-19. Longer monitoring periods than 14 days for quarantine or persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be justified in extreme cases, especially for those elderly.

【 授权许可】

CC BY