Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

BMC Infectious Diseases

Qinglong Zhao¹  Laishun Yao¹  Xinrong Lu¹  Bonan Cao¹  Bo Luan¹  Yifei Zhao¹  Bo Shen¹  Benhua Zhao²  Meng Yang²  Yanhua Su²  Yao Wang²  Zeyu Zhao²  Tianmu Chen²  Meina Li³ 

[1] Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 130062, Changchun, Jilin Province, People’s Republic of China;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, 361102, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China;The First Hospital of Jilin University, 130021, Changchun, Jilin Province, People’s Republic of China;

关键词: COVID-19;    Epidemic;    Measures;    Transmissibility;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-05936-9

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundBased on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.MethodsThe data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed.ResultsA total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread.ConclusionsCOVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

【 授权许可】

CC BY