A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study

BMC Infectious Diseases

Sean A. P. Clouston¹  Jaymie R. Meliker¹  Olga Morozova¹ 

[1] Program in Public Health, Health Sciences Center, Stony Brook University, #3-071, Nichols Rd., 11794-8338, Stony Brook, NY, USA;Department of Family, Population, and Preventive Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, USA;

关键词: COVID-19;    Infectious disease epidemiology;    Risk factors;    Quantitative modeling;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-06796-z

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTo examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside.MethodsDaily COVID-19 incidence reported in Suffolk County, NY, between March 16th and December 31st, 2020, was the outcome. Average wind speed and maximal daily temperature were collated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Negative binomial regression was used to model incidence rates while adjusting for susceptible population size.ResultsCases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Most days between May 1st, 2020, and October 24th, 2020, had temperatures 16–28 °C and wind speed diminished slowly over the year and began to increase again in December 2020. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 16 and 28 °C where wind speed was < 8.85 km per hour (KPH) had increased COVID-19 incidence (aIRR = 1.45, 95% C.I. = [1.28–1.64], P < 0.001) as compared to days with average wind speed ≥ 8.85 KPH.ConclusionThroughout the U.S. epidemic, the role of outdoor shared spaces such as parks and beaches has been a topic of considerable interest. This study suggests that outdoor transmission of COVID-19 may occur by noting that the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in some outdoor environments where airflow is limited.

【 授权许可】

CC BY