Application of machine learning to predict the occurrence of arrhythmia after acute myocardial infarction

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Jingjie Li¹  Suhuai Wang¹  Shihui Wang¹  Lin Sun¹  Shaoqing Sun¹  Jianing Cai¹  Linwen Zeng¹ 

[1] Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, 122 Postal Street, Nangang District, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, China;

关键词: Machine learning;    Arrhythmia;    Acute myocardial infarction;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12911-021-01667-8

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundEarly identification of the occurrence of arrhythmia in patients with acute myocardial infarction plays an essential role in clinical decision-making. The present study attempted to use machine learning (ML) methods to build predictive models of arrhythmia after acute myocardial infarction (AMI).MethodsA total of 2084 patients with acute myocardial infarction were enrolled in this study. (All data is available on Github: https://github.com/wangsuhuai/AMI-database1.git). The primary outcome is whether tachyarrhythmia occurred during admission containing atrial arrhythmia, ventricular arrhythmia, and supraventricular tachycardia. All data is randomly divided into a training set (80%) and an internal testing set (20%). Apply three machine learning algorithms: decision tree, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) to learn the training set to build a model, then use the testing set to evaluate the prediction performance, and compare it with the model built by the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk variable set.ResultsThree ML models predict the occurrence of tachyarrhythmias after AMI. After variable selection, the artificial neural network (ANN) model has reached the highest accuracy rate, which is better than the model constructed using the Grace variable set. After applying SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to make the model interpretable, the most important features are abnormal wall motion, lesion location, bundle branch block, age, and heart rate. Among them, RBBB (odds ratio[OR]: 4.21; 95% confidence interval[CI]: 2.42–7.02), ≥ 2 ventricular walls motion abnormal (OR: 3.26; 95% CI: 2.01–4.36) and right coronary artery occlusion (OR: 3.00; 95% CI: 1.98–4.56) are significant factors related to arrhythmia after AMI.ConclusionsWe used advanced machine learning methods to build prediction models for tachyarrhythmia after AMI for the first time (especially the ANN model that has the best performance). The current study can supplement the current AMI risk score, provide a reliable evaluation method for the clinic, and broaden the new horizons of ML and clinical research.Trial registration Clinical Trial Registry No.: ChiCTR2100041960.

【 授权许可】

CC BY