Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China

Frontiers in Medicine

article

Jingwen Xu¹  Shengnan Lin¹  Li Luo¹  Yanhua Su¹  Benhua Zhao¹  Yulin Zhou²  Roger Frutos³  Tianmu Chen¹  Meng Yang¹  Zeyu Zhao¹  Mingzhai Wang⁵  Zhinan Guo⁵  Yuanzhao Zhu¹  Jia Rui¹  Yao Wang¹  Xingchun Liu¹ 

[1] State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University;United Diagnostic and Research Center for Clinical Genetics, Women and Children's Hospital, School of Medicine & School of Public Health, Xiamen University;Agricultural Research Centre for International Development;Institut d'Electronique et des Systèmes, Université de Montpellier-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique;Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention

关键词: infectious disease;    hand;    foot;    mouth disease;    seasonality;    transmissibility;    meteorological factors;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fmed.2020.597375

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Background: As an emerging infectious disease, the prevention and control of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant challenge to the development of public health in China. In this study, we aimed to explore the mechanism of the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD and to reveal the correlation and potential path between key meteorological factors and the transmissibility of HFMD. Methods: Combined with daily meteorological data such as average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind velocity, amount of precipitation, average air pressure, evaporation capacity, and sunshine duration, a database of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was established. Spearman rank correlation was used to calculate the correlation between the various meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD. The effective reproduction number ( R eff ) of HFMD was used as an intermediate variable to further quantify the dynamic relationship between the average temperature and R eff . Results: A total of 43,659 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen from 2014 to 2018. There was a significantly positive correlation between the average temperature and the incidence of HFMD ( r = 0.596, p 0.05) or amount of precipitation ( r = 0.043, p > 0.05) and incidence. There was a temperature threshold for HFMD's transmissibility. Owing to the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD in Xiamen, the temperature threshold of HFMD's transmissibility was 13.4–18.4°C and 14.5–29.3°C in spring and summer and in autumn and winter, respectively. Conclusions: HFMD's transmissibility may be affected by the average temperature; the temperature threshold range of transmissibility in autumn and winter is slightly wider than that in spring and summer. Based on our findings, we suggest that the relevant epidemic prevention departments should pay close attention to temperature changes in Xiamen to formulate timely prevention strategies before the arrival of the high-risk period.

【 授权许可】

CC BY