Decisions of persons, the pharmaceutical industry, and donors in disease contraction and recovery assuming virus mutation

Health Economics Review

Kjell Hausken¹  Mthuli Ncube² 

[1] Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Stavanger, 4036, Stavanger, Norway;Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, OX1 1HP, Oxford, United Kingdom;

关键词: Pharmaceutical industry;    Health;    Patients;    Donors;    Safe versus risky behavior;    Disease contraction;    Recovery;    Death;    Drug development;    Virus mutation;    Subsidies;    Game theory;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13561-021-00320-4

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe article develops an eight-period game between N persons and a pharmaceutical company. The choices of a donor and Nature are parametric.MethodsPersons choose between safe and risky behavior, and whether or not to buy drugs. The pharmaceutical company chooses whether or not to develop drugs. The donor chooses parametrically whether to subsidize drug purchases and drug developments. Nature chooses disease contraction, recovery, death, and virus mutation. The game is solved with backward induction.ResultsThe conditions are specified for each of seven outcomes ranging from safe behavior to risky behavior and buying no or one or both drugs. The seven outcomes distribute themselves across three outcomes for the pharmaceutical company, which are to develop no drugs, develop one drug, and develop two drugs if the virus mutates. For these three outcomes the donor’s expected utility is specified.ConclusionHIV/AIDS data is used to present a procedure for parameter estimation. The players’ strategic choices are exemplified. The article shows how strategic interaction between persons and a pharmaceutical company, with parametric choices of a donor and Nature, impact whether persons choose risky or safe behavior, whether a pharmaceutical company develops no drugs or one drug, or two drugs if a virus mutates, and the impact of subsidies by a donor.

【 授权许可】

CC BY