Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

Meteorological applications

article

Christopher J. White¹  Henrik Carlsen³  Andrew W. Robertson⁴  Richard J.T. Klein³  Jeffrey K. Lazo⁵  Arun Kumar⁶  Frederic Vitart⁷  Erin Coughlan de Perez⁴  Andrea J. Ray⁹  Virginia Murray^1,10  Sukaina Bharwani³  Dave MacLeod^1,11  Rachel James^1,12  Lora Fleming^1,13  Andrew P. Morse^1,14  Bernd Eggen^1,15  Richard Graham^1,16  Erik Kjellström^1,17  Emily Becker⁶  Kathleen V. Pegion^1,18  Neil J. Holbrook^1,19  Darryn McEvoy^2,20  Michael Depledge^1,13  Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick^2,21  Timothy J. Brown^2,22  Roger Street^2,23  Lindsey Jones^2,24  Tomas A. Remenyi²  Indi Hodgson-Johnston²  Carlo Buontempo^1,16  Rob Lamb^2,25  Holger Meinke^2,27  Berit Arheimer^1,17  Stephen E. Zebiak⁴ 

[1] School of Engineering and ICT, University of Tasmania;Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC);Stockholm Environment Institute;International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University;National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Research Applications Laboratory (RAL);National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC), College Park;European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF);Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University;National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL);Public Health England (PHE);Department of Physics, University of Oxford;Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford;European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter;School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool;Centre for Radiation, Public Health England (PHE);UK Met Office;Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI);Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University;ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania;Global Cities Research Institute, RMIT University;ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales;Desert Research Institute;UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), University of Oxford;London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE);Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University;JBA Trust;Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania;Climate Information Services Ltd

关键词: climate prediction;    forecasting;    decision-support;    ensemble forecasts;    extremes;    extended-range;    seasonal prediction;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1654

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

【 授权许可】

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