A novel, Value-Focused-Thinking based, approach for modelling agro-industrial decisions under scarce information

JIRAE (International Journal of Industrial Research and Applied Engineering)

article

Mario Luis Chew Hernández¹  Leopoldo Viveros-Rosas¹  Verónica Velazquez-Romero¹ 

[1] Technological of Superior Studies of Coacalco

关键词: Decision Analysis;    Industrial Management;    Value Focused Thinking.;   

DOI  :  10.9744/jirae.4.2.33-39

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: Petra Christian University

【 摘 要 】

Agro-industrial decision-making is hampered by several, variously-natured, uncertainties. As uncertainty reduction is expensive, the decision modelling process for these industries must strive to use all available information. However, said inclusive effort should be accompanied by an effort to keep modelling assumptions transparent. This work shows the development, from a Value-Focused Thinking perspective, of a model to assess alternatives for improving the operation of a cattle fodder producer. Modelling starts by analyzing and structuring the owner’s objectives and proceeds by systematically characterizing, via value judgments or probability distributions, the connections between structured objectives. Constructing the model over a blueprint of connected objectives allows a faithful representation of the understanding of the system behavior while the methodical, one-connection-at-a-time, modelling procedure renders the assumptions used to operationalize each connection visible, facilitating their replacement if more information becomes available. The modelling approach put forward here can support industrial decision making with limited information.

【 授权许可】

CC BY