Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer

Revista de Saúde Pública

Arthur E. Imhof¹ 

[1] ,Freie Universität Berlin Division of Social History and Historical Demography Department of HistoryBerlin,Federal Republic of Germany

关键词: Demographic transition;    Life expectancy;    Demographic aging;    Demographic aging;    Transição demográfica;    Expectativa de vida;    Envelhecimento da população;    Envelhecimento da população;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0034-89101987000500010

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role.

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