The Effect of Precipitation on the Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) Virus in Nature: A Complex Effect on Antibody-Positive Rate to JE Virus in Sentinel Pigs

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Ichiro Kurane³  Ken-ichi Shibasaki¹  Akira Kotaki¹  Yasuaki Hijioka² 

[1] Department of Virology 1, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1-23-1 Toyama, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan; E-Mails:;Sustainable Social Systems Section, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba-City, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan; E-Mail:;National Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1-23-1 Toyama, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan

关键词: Japanese encephalitis;    pigs;    climate change;    precipitation;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph10051831

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in Asia. Pigs are a natural host and the amplifier of JE virus. The sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs reflects the activity of JE virus in the region. We analyzed whether precipitation has any effect on the sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the correlations between the levels of precipitation and sero-conversion rates to JE virus, in the entire year and during summertime over the period of 32 years from 1969 to 2000. The levels of the annual and summertime precipitation demonstrated statistically significant positive correlations with sero-conversion rates for the whole of the country and for some regions in Japan. The levels of the summertime precipitation, on the other hand, demonstrated statistically significant inverse correlations with the sero-conversion rates in other regions. Further, the levels of precipitation during preceding 10-day periods from days 1–40 before blood collection showed inverse correlation with antibody-positive rates in some regions. The results indicate that the relationship between the annual and summertime precipitation, and the sero-conversion rate to JE virus is complex; both positive and inverse effects are demonstrated depending on the regions.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.