Comparison of LARS-WG and AAFC-WG stochastic weather generators for diverseCanadian climates

Climate Research

Budong Qian¹  Andy Bootsma¹  Reinder De Jong¹  Sam Gameda¹  Henry Hayhoe¹ 

关键词: Weather generators;    Climate scenarios;    Impact studies;    Agriculture;    Canada;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr026175

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Two weather generators‹LARS-WG, developed at Long Ashton Research Station (UK), and AAFC-WG, developed at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada‹were compared in order to gauge their capabilities of reproducing probability distributions, means andvariances of observed daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for diverse Canadian climates. Climatic conditions, such as wet and dry spells, interannual variability and agroclimatic indices, were also used to assess theperformance of the 2 weather generators. AAFC-WG performed better in simulating temperature-related statistics, while it did almost as well as LARS-WG for statistics associated with daily precipitation. Using empirical distributions in AAFC-WG for dailymaximum and minimum temperatures helped to improve the temperature statistics, especially in cases where local temperatures did not follow normal distributions. However, both weather generators had overdispersion problems, i.e. they underestimatedinterannual variability, especially for temperatures. Overall, AAFC-WG performed better.

【 授权许可】

Unknown