The impact of climate change on summer maize phenology in the northwest plain of Shandong province under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario

35th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

Chen, P.^1 ; Liu, Y.^1

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China^1

关键词: Agricultural productions;    Climate scenarios;    Crop growth model;    Growth modeling;    Heat resistant;    Increased temperature;    Regional climate modeling;    Shandong province;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/17/1/012053/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/17/1/012053

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Climate change will affect agricultural production. Combining a climate model and a crop growth model furnishes a good approach for analyzing this effect quantitatively. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of climate change on summer maize phenology in northwest Shandong province under the A1B climate scenario using a regional climate model and the CERES-Maize growth model. The results showed that the temperature would increase significantly during the maize growth season in the study region, that the increased temperature would shorten the maize growth stage and result in a potential yield loss using the current cultivar, and that it is critical to breed a heat-resistant and late-maturing cultivar to maintain the yield.