Forecasting Gold Prices Using Multiple Linear Regression Method | Science Publications

American Journal of Applied Sciences

A. Shabri¹  Z. Ismail¹  A. Yahya¹ 

关键词: Gold prices;    forecasting;    forecast accuracy and multiple linear regression;   

DOI  :  10.3844/ajassp.2009.1509.1514

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

Problem statement: Forecasting is a function in management to assist decision making. It is also described as the process of estimation in unknown future situations. In a more general term it is commonly known as prediction which refers to estimation of time series or longitudinal type data. Gold is a precious yellow commodity once used as money. It was made illegal in USA 41 years ago, but is now once again accepted as a potential currency. The demand for this commodity is on the rise. Approach: Objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for predicting gold prices based on economic factors such as inflation, currency price movements and others. Following the melt-down of US dollars, investors are putting their money into gold because gold plays an important role as a stabilizing influence for investment portfolios. Due to the increase in demand for gold in Malaysian and other parts of the world, it is necessary to develop a model that reflects the structure and pattern of gold market and forecast movement of gold price. The most appropriate approach to the understanding of gold prices is the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. MLR is a study on the relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables, as this case with gold price as the single dependent variable. The fitted model of MLR will be used to predict the future gold prices. A naive model known as

【 授权许可】

Unknown