Modelling of rainfall intensity in a watershed: A case study in Amprong watershed, Kedungkandang, Malang, East Java of Indonesia

Journal of Water and Land Development

Lily Montarcih Limantara^1¹ 

[1] University of Brawijaya, 65141, Malang, Indonesia^1

关键词: duration;    forecasting;    probability;    flood probability;    rainfall intensity;   

DOI  :  10.2478/jwld-2018-0044

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczego / Institute of Technology and Life Sciences

【 摘 要 】

Analysis of rainfall intensity with specific probability is very important to control the negative impact of rainfall occurrence. Rainfall intensity (I), probability (p) and return period (T) are very important variables for the discharge analysis. There are several methods to estimate rainfall intensity, such as Talbot, Sherman, and Ishiguro. The aim of this research is to develop equation model which can predict rainfall intensity with specific duration and probability. The equation model is compared with the other methods. The result of rainfall intensity model with the value of correlation >0.94 and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient >99 is quite good enough if compared with the observation result. For specific return period, the modelling result is less accurate which is most likely caused by election of duration. Advanced research in other location indicates that short duration gives the better result for rainfall intensity modelling, which is shown by the decreasing average value of mean absolute error (MAE) from 12.963 to 8.26.

【 授权许可】

Unknown