Diffusion, co-evolution and strategic interdependence in comparative and international politics: new spatial econometric and event history approaches

democratization;diffusion;diffusion of democracy;co-evolution;coevolution;networks;spatial;duration;event history;survival;spatial econometrics

Kachi, Aya

关键词: democratization;    diffusion;    diffusion of democracy;    co-evolution;    coevolution;    networks;    spatial;    duration;    event history;    survival;    spatial econometrics;   

Others  :  https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/42323/Aya_Kachi.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

Interdependence is ubiquitousacross theories of democratization. For example, the level of democracy in one countrymight be dependent on its level in other countries;the timing of democratization might be relatedto the survival of existing democracies.In contrast, much of the empirical literature on democratization has modeled the level of democracy and the timing of regime transitions as if all the observationalunits and events were independent. Theessays in thisthesisexplore threesources of interdependencein thestudyof democratization: the first concerns the causal connection between the emergence and collapse of democracy;thesecond is thediffusion of politicalregimes across countries;Thethirdthe reinforcement and local convergence of political regimes across countries and over time.Althougheach typeof interdependenceraises a uniqueset of methodologicalchallenges, the emergence of "feedback loops defines the common mathematical characteristics of these difficulties.A feedback loop is formed when a change in an outcome (e.g., the level of democracy)influences the outcomes of otherunits,which in turncomes back to affect the outcome thatexperienced the original shock. Both the inter-event (e.g., the emergence and breakdownof democracies)and inter-unit (e.g., diffusion and reinforcement)dependencies generate these recursive flows of effects across observationalunits.In thisthesis,I develop twosystemsof equations(SEQ)models to accountfor thethree sources of interdependence. In all the models presented here, I take a so-called "substantive" approach, rather than a "nuisance" approach, in order to model the theoretically-informed structure of dependence.In Essay 1, I develop a multivariate event historymodel in order to incorporate the two-way causal relationshipsbetween the emergence and breakdown of democracies.In Essay 2, I develop a multivariate event historymodel for datawith right- censored observations, building on the model developed in Essay 1. Essay 3 introduces a new spatialeconometricmodel, which estimatestheexistence and thestrengthof bothregime diffusion and regime reinforcement, using time-series cross-sectional data of democracy levels.