Climate Change Effects on Hydropower Potential in the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy)

Earth Interactions

G. T.Aronica¹ 

关键词: Hydropower;    Climate change;    IHACRES;    Monte Carlo analysis;    Mediterranean areas;    Sicily;   

DOI  :  10.1175/2012EI000508.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractIn recent years, increasing attention has been paid to hydropower generation, since it is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy, as well as an effective tool to reduce the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. At the same time, however, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to global warming, because water resources are closely linked to climate changes. Indeed, the effects of climate change on water availability are expected to affect hydropower generation with special reference to southern countries, which are supposed to face dryer conditions in the next decades. The aim of this paper is to qualitatively assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime of the Alcantara River basin, eastern Sicily (Italy), based on Monte Carlo simulations. Synthetic series of daily rainfall and temperature are generated, based on observed data, through a first-order Markov chain and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA)...

【 授权许可】

Unknown