DETERMINATION OF COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE OF WATER LEVELS AND WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE SAFETY OF DIKES AT THE BALTIC SEA

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Fokke Saathoff¹  Christian Schlamkow¹  Christian Kaehler¹ 

[1] Chair of Geotechnics and Coastal EngineeringUniversity of Rostock

关键词: Copula;    Combined probability;    Risk management;    Sea state modelling;    Extreme value theory;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v35.management.6

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

Large parts of the Baltic Sea coast in Germany are protected by dikes against storm surges and floods. The dikes are designed to resist storm surges and floods, also taking into consideration of climate changes and sea level rise. To ensure the protective function the safety standards of the dikes are validated in regular intervals. This paper presents an approach to determine combined probabilities of occurrence of water level and wave heights for three selected sections. The probabilities of occurrence for defined return periods have been calculated by comparing several Copula models from the Archimedean Copula family.

【 授权许可】

CC BY