学位论文详细信息
Statistical inference for some risk measures
Empirical likelihood method;Conditional value-at-risk;Relative risk;Tail dependence;Copula;Extreme value theory
Hou, Yanxi ; Yu, Xingxing Mathematics Peng, Liang Zhilova, Mayya Livshyts, Galyna Popescu, Ionel ; Yu, Xingxing
University:Georgia Institute of Technology
Department:Mathematics
关键词: Empirical likelihood method;    Conditional value-at-risk;    Relative risk;    Tail dependence;    Copula;    Extreme value theory;   
Others  :  https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/1853/58629/1/HOU-DISSERTATION-2017.pdf
美国|英语
来源: SMARTech Repository
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【 摘 要 】

Recently, many risk measures have been developed for various types of risk based on multiple financial variables. However, statistical properties of these risk measures are not fully understood, and there are very few effective inference methods for them in applications to financial data. This thesis addresses asymptotic behaviors and statistical inferencemethods for several newly proposed risk measures, including relative risk and conditional value-at-risk. These risk metrics are intended to measure the tail risks and/or systemic riskin financial markets. We consider conditional Value-at-Risk based on a linear regression model. We extend the assumptions on predictors and errors of the model, which make the model more flexible for the financial data. We then consider a relative risk measure based on a benchmark variable. The relative risk measure is proposed as a monitoring index for systemic risk of financial system. We also propose a new tail dependence measure based on the limit of conditional Kendall’s tau. The new tail dependence can be used to distinguish between the asymptotic independence and dependence in extreme value theory. For asymptotic results of these measures, we derive both normal and Chi-squared approximations. These approximations are a basis for inference methods. For normal approximation, the asymptotic variances are too complicated to estimate due to the complex formsof risk measures. Quantifying uncertainty is a practical and important issue in risk management. We propose several empirical likelihood methods to construct interval estimation based on Chi-squared approximation. Simulation study and real data analysis illustrate theusefulness of these risk measures and our inference methods. In particular, the empirical likelihood methods are very effective and easy to implement for practical applications.

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