Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

Earth Interactions

Heidi E.Brown¹ 

关键词: Ecological models;    Disease;    Ecological models;    Local effects;   

DOI  :  10.1175/EI-D-15-0008.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractWhile estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater propor...

【 授权许可】

Unknown