Temperature, relative humidity and sunshine may be the effective predictors for occurrence of malaria in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006–2012

Particle and Fibre Toxicology

Ming Wang¹  Zhicong Yang¹  Tiegang Li¹ 

[1] Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510440, China

关键词: Early warning;    Correlation;    Meteorological variables;    Parasite disease;    Malaria;   

Others  :  1227027
DOI  :  10.1186/1756-3305-6-155

 received in 2013-05-17, accepted in 2013-05-27,  发布年份 2013

【 摘 要 】

Malaria has been endemic in Guangzhou for more than 50 years. The goal of this study was to use a negative binomial regression to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and malaria reported. Our results revealed that each 1°C rise of temperature corresponds to an increase of 0.90% in the monthly number of malaria cases. Likewise, a one percent rise in relative humidity led to an increase of 3.99% and a one hour rise in sunshine led to an increase of 0.68% in the monthly number of cases. Our findings may be useful for developing a simple, precise malaria early warning system.

【 授权许可】

   
2013 Li et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 参考文献 】

• [1]Abebe A, Dagnachew M, Mikrie M, Meaza A, Melkamu G: Ten year trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Kola Diba, North Gondar, Northwest Ethiopia. Parasit Vectors 2012, 5:173. BioMed Central Full Text
• [2]Snow RW, Guerra CA, Noor AM, Myint HY, Hay SI: The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Nature 2005, 434:214-217.
• [3]Li T, Fu C, Di B, Wu J, Yang Z, Wang Y, Li M, Lu J, Chen Y, Lu E, Geng J, Hu W, Dong Z, Li MF, Zheng BJ, Cao KY, Wang M: A two-year surveillance of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Guangzhou, China: from pandemic to seasonal influenza? PLoS One 2011, 6:e28027.
• [4]Zhou SS, Wang Y, Li Y: [Malaria situation in the People’s Republic of China in 2010] (in Chinese). Zhongguo Ji Sheng Chong Xue Yu Ji Sheng Chong Bing Za Zhi 2011, 29:401-403.
• [5]Xu J, Liu H: The challenges of malaria elimination in Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 2012, 43:819-824.
• [6]Baptista JL, Wéry M, van der Stuyft P: Influence of storage temperature on estimates of tumour necrosis factor in plasma samples from patients with cerebral malaria. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 1997, 91:429-431.
• [7]Loha E, Lindtjørn B: Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998–2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia. Malaria J 2010, 9:166. BioMed Central Full Text
• [8]Bomblies A, Eltahir EA: Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel. EcoHealth 2009, 6:426-437.
• [9]Nath DC, Mwchahary DD: Association between climatic variables and malaria incidence: a study in Kokrajhar district of Assam, India. Glob J Health Sci 2012, 5:90-106.
• [10]Conza L, Casati S, Limoni C, Gaia V: Meteorological factors and risk of community-acquired Legionnaires’ disease in Switzerland: an epidemiological study. BMJ Open 2013, 3:e002428.
• [11]Alexander KA, Carzolio M, Goodin D, Vance E: Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2013, 10:1202-1230.
• [12]Valérie O, Marc D, Pierre D, Marc C: Anopheles species associations in Southeast Asia: indicator species and environmental influences. Parasit Vectors 2013, 6:136. BioMed Central Full Text
• [13]Antonio-Nkondjio C, Awono-Ambene P, Fontenille D, Ngassam P, Simard F, Tchuinkam T, Toto JC: Malaria vectors and urbanization in the equatorial forest region of south Cameroon. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg 2005, 5:347-354.
• [14]Bigoga JD, Nanfack FM, Awono-Ambene PH, Salomon P, Jean A, Otia VS, Etienne F, Moyou RS, Rose GF L: Seasonal prevalence of malaria vectors and entomological inoculation rates in the rubber cultivated area of Niete, South Region of Cameroon. Parasit Vectors 2013, 6:136. BioMed Central Full Text
• [15]Diego A, Carlo C, Kenji O, Kamdem GC, Christophe A-N, Jean-Pierre A, Parfait A-A, Didier F, Frédéric S: Habitat suitability and ecological niche profile of major malaria vectors in Cameroon. Malaria J 2009, 8:307. BioMed Central Full Text