Modeling the scenarios of catastrophic flood on the river of the Northern

Arctic Biomonitoring

Sazonov, A.A.^1^2^3^4 ; Krylenko, I.N.^1^2^3 ; Amerbaev, A.N.^2 ; Zavyalova, E.V.^1 ; Semenova, N.K.^1 ; Gelfan, A.N.^2 ; Frolova, N.L.^1

Department of Land Hydrology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow

119991, Russia^1

Laboratory of Regional Hydrology, Institute of Water Problems RAS, Gubkina str-3, Moscow

119333, Russia^2

St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation RAS, 14-th Linia VI No. 39, St.-Petersburg

199178, Russia^3

S.I.Vavilov Institute for the History of Science and Technology RAS, Baltiyskaya str-14, Moscow

125315, Russia^4

关键词: Catastrophic floods;    Meteorological station;    Meteorological variables;    Physico-mathematical modeling;    Regulatory documents;    Statistical characteristics;    Weather generator;    Worst case scenario;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/263/1/012056/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/263/1/012056

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Calculation of the maximum possible water discharge is one of the most important applied tasks. Its main feature is a high social and economic responsibility. Currently, the regulatory documents apply extrapolation of the empirical curve to the area of rare frequency, taking into account a guarantee correction. This method is quite reliable in terms of security, but not always economically feasible. One of the possible ways to estimate the maximum discharge for the river under study is to use a stochastic model along with a "weather generator" and a physico-mathematical model for the formation of a runoff. The weather generator is a stochastic model that predicts time series of several interconnected meteorological variables based on the statistical characteristics of the values observed at meteorological stations. This paper assesses the maximum possible water discharge for the Northern Dvina river near the city of Velikiy Ustyug and the worst-case scenario of the flood.