Nonstationary Modelling of Annual Discharge over the Tarim River Headstream Catchment, China

2nd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Wu, Yunbiao^1,2 ; Xue, Lianqing^1,2,3

College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing

210098, China^1

Hohai University Wentian College, Maanshan

243031, China^2

College of Water Conservancy and Architectural, Shehezi University, Shehezi

832003, China^3

关键词: Changing environment;    Explanatory variables;    Generalized additive model;    Hydrological time-series;    Meteorological variables;    Stationary conditions;    Stationary models;    Statistical modeling;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/170/2/022149/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/170/2/022149

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In the changing environment, the hydrological time series no longer satisfies the assumption of stationarity. In this study, the changes in annual discharge at five hydrological stations over the Tarim River (TR) headstream catchment are analysed based on the hydrologic data during last 50 years, and the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to as a tool for modeling annual discharge series under no stationary condition with time and meteorological variables. The results show that: (1) There is an evident influence of meteorological variables on the mean and variance of annual discharge in the Tarim headstream catchment; (2) Compare to the stationary model, the no stationary models that incorporate time and meteorological variables have a significant improvement in description of the changes in the annual discharge series; (3) The stationary model may lead to underestimate or overestimate annual discharge under changing environment, and it is wrong to assume stationarity for statistical modeling of estimating water resource. The estimating water resource should be described by the no stationary models with more explanatory variables, such as time and meteorological variables. This study can serve as a reference for regional planning and management of water resources in the Tarim River Basin (TRB).