The evolution of pandemic influenza: evidence from India, 1918–19

BMC Infectious Diseases

Eva Kassens-Noor¹  Siddharth Chandra² 

[1] School of Planning Design and Construction and Global Urban Studies Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA;Asian Studies Center, 301 International Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA

关键词: Immunity;    Climatic factors;    Epidemic velocity;    India;    Mortality;    Pandemic;    Influenza;    Spanish Influenza;    1918 influenza pandemic;   

Others  :  1125529
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2334-14-510

 received in 2014-03-20, accepted in 2014-07-22,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

The 1918–19 ‘Spanish’ Influenza was the most devastating pandemic in recent history, with estimates of global mortality ranging from 20 to 50 million. The focal point of the pandemic was India, with an estimated death toll of between 10 and 20 million. We will characterize the pattern of spread, mortality, and evolution of the 1918 influenza across India using spatial or temporal data.

Methods

This study estimates weekly deaths in 213 districts from nine provinces in India. We compute statistical measures of the severity, speed, and duration of the virulent autumn wave of the disease as it evolved and diffused throughout India. These estimates create a clear picture of the spread of the pandemic across India.

Results

Analysis of the timing and mortality patterns of the disease reveals a striking pattern of speed deceleration, reduction in peak-week mortality, a prolonging of the epidemic wave, and a decrease in overall virulence of the pandemic over time.

Conclusions

The findings are consistent with a variety of possible causes, including the changing nature of the dominant viral strain and the timing and severity of the monsoon. The results significantly advance our knowledge of this devastating pandemic at its global focal point.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Chandra and Kassens-Noor; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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