Method for determining effectiveness of prediction of failure of elements of pipeline systems

International Conference on Construction, Architecture and Technosphere Safety 2018

土木建筑工程

Kononova, M.S.^1 ; Vorobyeva, Y.A.^1 ; Kononov, A.A.^1

Department of Housing and Communal Services, Voronezh State Technical University, 20-letiya Oktyabrya, 84, Voronezh

394000, Russia^1

关键词: Accident detections;    Conditional probabilities;    Emergency situation;    Forecasting efficiencies;    Forecasting error;    Pipe-line systems;    Prediction of failures;    Random components;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/451/1/012098/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/451/1/012098

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The importance and relevance of the development of effective methods for predicting the state of pipeline systems are substantiated. The set of analyzed parameters, containing both deterministic and random components, and being the functions of time is presented as a vector-column. As an indicator of the effectiveness of accident detection, the conditional probabilities of correct detection or omission of a hazard are offered. The formulas and the algorithm of two-alternative detection of emergency situations in pipeline systems are given. It is proposed to use the average risk of forecasting errors, which is the expectation of the average "fee" for the error, as a general indicator of the forecasting efficiency.