A method to identify the risk probability of synchronous occurrence of extreme rainfalls of different hydro-zones

2018 International Conference of Green Buildings and Environmental Management

土木建筑工程;生态环境科学

Cui, T.T.^1,2 ; Wang, L.Z.^1,2 ; Wang, Y.T.^1,2 ; Hu, Q.F.^1,2 ; Long, Y.Q.^1,2

Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing

210029, China^1

State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing

210098, China^2

关键词: Conditional probabilities;    Extreme rainfall;    Joint distributions;    Marginal distribution;    Rainfall series;    Return periods;    Risk probabilities;    Taihu basins;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/186/3/012059/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/186/3/012059

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The extreme rainfall from the adjacent hydro-zone might have impact on the local hydro-zone. A method is prompted to estimate the risk probability of synchronous occurrence of extreme rainfalls in this paper. The Taihu Basin is taken as an example. The K-S test and AIC are employed to identify the marginal distribution. The Frank Copula is used to construct the joint distribution. Finally, the risk probability is estimated by the conditional probability. The extreme rainfalls of the South of the Taihu Basin belong to the Lnorm distribution. Most of the extreme rainfalls of the North of the Taihu Basin belong to the PIII distribution, except the max 30 days rainfall of YCD which belongs to the Lnorm distribution. The return period of different hydro-zones could have different impact on the risk probability of synchronous occurrence of extreme rainfalls. The conditional probability of Rain-zone II could increase with the time of rainfall series given the return periods of the other hydro-zones are taken as constant.