Risk management model in road transport systems

5th International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences

物理学;数学

Sakhapov, R.L.^1 ; Nikolaeva, R.V.^1 ; Gatiyatullin, M.H.^1 ; Makhmutov, M.M.^1

Kazan State University of Architecture and Engineering, Zelenaya str., 1, Kazan

420043, Russia^1

关键词: Accident factors;    Development and operations;    Motor roads;    Risk management models;    Road safety;    Road transport systems;    Socio-economics;    Transportation system;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/738/1/012008/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/738/1/012008

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.