Probabilistic-statistical models of the dynamics of climatic changes in the Altai Mountains

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems: ENVIROMIS-2018

生态环境科学;计算机科学

Ustinova, V.N.^1 ; Zuev, V.V.^2 ; Bondarenko, S.L.^2 ; Ustinova, I.G.^3 ; Ovchinnikov, D.V.^4 ; Kirdjanov, A.V.^4

TUSUR, RETEM Russia, 40, Lenin Avenue, Tomsk

634050, Russia^1

Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, 10/3, Akademicheskii Ave., Tomsk

634055, Russia^2

School of Engineering Entrepreneurship, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30, Lenina Avenue, Tomsk

634050, Russia^3

Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Akademgorodok No50,.28, Krasnoyarsk

660036, Russia^4

关键词: Autocorrelation analysis;    Autocorrelation methods;    Climatic changes;    Climatic process;    Maximum density;    Stratospheric ozone;    Tectonic activity;    Total ozone content;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012025/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012025

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

A probabilistic-statistical parameterization of time series characterizing geological and climatic processes allows determining some regularities by an autocorrelation analysis of signals which differ in nature. The use of the autocorrelation method for analyzing data related to solar and tectonic activity and characterizing the level of stratospheric ozone (total ozone content), hydrothermal regimes (De Martonne aridity index), and wood structure (maximum density of annual rings) allows us to find regularities in time series of various natural processes. Data on the maximum density of Siberian larch trees growing in the Altai Mountains made it possible to calculate the past changes in total ozone content and the aridity index in the Altai Mountains from 1900 to 2014 based on some similarities in the series and a separation of a dendrochronological signal into its main components.