Optimal combination design method of two hydrologic variables based on risk analysis

4th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

Gao, S.P.^1 ; Zhao, G.^1 ; Yang, X.^1

Hydraulic Research Institute of Jiangsu, 97# Nanhu road, Nanjing, China^1

关键词: High wind speed;    Hydraulic engineering;    Hydrological variables;    Occurrence probability;    Optimal combination;    Risk probabilities;    Structural failure;    Traditional engineerings;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012043/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012043

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The joint occurrence of hydrological variables may cause structural failure for a civil hydraulic engineering. However, the large values of these variables are not always occurring together. The assumption of two extreme hydrology events occurring simultaneously is unreasonable and uneconomic in the traditional engineering design method. For better choice of combined variables in design, the combined effect should be considered. So, based on conditional risk probability, a new optimal combination design method of two hydrologic variables was proposed. A case study from Shenzhen using the rainfall and the wind data showed that there was a low joint occurrence probability of high rainfall and high wind speed. For a given design risk probability of 1%, the 24 h rainfall with a design risk threshold of 457.7 mm and a wind speed of 27.4 m/s are the best combination, or the wind speed with a design risk threshold of 30.99 m/s and a 24 h rainfall of 396.5 mm are the best combination. The two best combination conditions should be met simultaneously for effectively improving safety, credibility and economy of a civil hydraulic structure design.