Research on vehicle distribution model based on POT theory

2018 2nd International Workshop on Renewable Energy and Development

能源学;经济学

Zhang, Junping^1 ; Huang, Haiyun^2 ; Li, Yonghe^2

School of Civil Engineering, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou

510006, China^1

Guangdong Communication Polytechnic, Guangzhou

510650, China^2

关键词: Beijing zhuhai Expressway;    Development trends;    Distribution models;    Extreme value theory;    Heavy vehicle;    Return periods;    Urgent problems;    Vehicle weights;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/153/3/032051/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/153/3/032051

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The vehicle overload phenomenon in expressway has become increasingly serious in China. Research on the extreme value of the vehicle load with its development trend is an urgent problem in the toll-by-weight mode. On the basis of statistical analysis of WIM data in Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway, by the extreme value theory and POT theory, a POT model had been developed. Vehicle weight distribution in the tail of the distribution function was obtained, which can predict the extreme value of vehicle load in any return period. Results showed that more heavy vehicles will appear in the future. It provided a useful reference for effective forecast of overweight vehicles.