Modelling landscape change in paddy fields using logistic regression and GIS

4th International Symposium on LAPAN-IPB Satellite for Food Security and Environmental Monitoring

农业科学;生态环境科学

Franjaya, E.E.^1 ; Syartinilia^1 ; Setiawan, Y.^2

Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University, Kampus IPB Darmaga, Bogor

16680, Indonesia^1

Center for Environmental Research, Bogor Agricultural University, Kampus IPB Darmaga, Bogor

16680, Indonesia^2

关键词: Adaptive Management;    Agricultural land;    Commercial building;    Environmental variables;    Landscape changes;    Landscape ecology;    Logistic regressions;    Low probability;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/149/1/012002/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/149/1/012002

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Paddy field in karawang district, as an important agricultural land in west java, has been decreased since 1994. From previous study, paddy fields dominantly turned into built area. The changes were almost occured in the middle area of the district where roadways, industries, settlements, and commercial buildings were existed. These were estimated as driving forces. But, we still need to prove it. This study aimed to construct the paddy field probability change model, subsequently the driving forces will be obtained. GIS combined with logistic regression using environmental variables were used as main method in this study. Ten environmental variables were elevation 0-500 m, elevation>500 m, slope8%, CBD, build up area, river, irrigation, toll and national roadway, and collector and local roadway. The result indicated that four variables were significantly played as driving forces (slope>8%, CBD area, build up area, and collector and local roadway). Paddy field has high, medium, and low probability to change which covered about 27.8%, 7.8%, and 64.4% area in Karawang respectively. Based on landscape ecology, the recommendation that suitable with landscape change is adaptive management.