Scenario of expected climate and change of surface drain in north Kazakhstan

7th International Scientific Practical Conference "Modern problems of reservoirs and their catchments"

自然科学（总论）

Cherednichenko, A.V.^1 ; Cherednichenko, Al V.^1 ; Cherednichenko, V.S.^1

Institute of Biology and Biotechnology, Kaz.NU by Al Farabi Almaty, Kazakhstan^1

关键词: Climatic fluctuations;    General circulation;    Kazakhstan;    Physical laws;    Surface drains;    Surface runoffs;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/321/1/012011/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/321/1/012011

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Taking into account local peculiarities of the territory, scenarios of changes in temperature and precipitation for the future up to 2040 -2050 are built. On this basis, estimated probable change in runoff due to expected climate changes. The scenarios are based on physical laws, consisting in the presence of links between climatic fluctuations contained in time series of temperature and precipitation and climatic fluctuations in the indices of the general circulation of the atmosphere, identified on the basis of harmonic analysis. It is shown that one should expect stabilization of temperature in the region and even some decrease in it with a constant amount of precipitation. This will positively affect the surface runoff.