Model of land cover change with cellular automata, Mataram city, West Nusa Tenggara

Padjadjaran Earth Dialogues, International Symposium on Geophysical Issues

Putri, I.M.G.^1 ; Supriatna^1 ; Koestoer, R.H.^2 ; Siwi, S.E.^3

Department of Geography, University of Indonesia, Jl. Margonda Raya, Pondok Cina, Beji, Depok

16424, Indonesia^1

School of Environmental Science, University of Indonesia, Jl. Salemba Raya IV, RW.5, Kenari, Senen, Kota Jakarta Pusat

10430, Indonesia^2

National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Jl. Pemuda Persil No.1, Jakarta

13220, Indonesia^3

关键词: Agricultural areas;    Agricultural land;    Central government;    Driving factors;    Human needs;    Land-cover change;    Sharp increase;    Spatial modeling;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/311/1/012075/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/311/1/012075

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Along with the increase of population, the needs for space for agriculture, settlement, infrastructure, and industry are increasing. It affects the extent to the availability and sustaining human needs. The objectives of this research are: (1) to analyze land cover change in Mataram in 2008, 2013, and 2017, (2) to predict land cover in 2031 in Mataram using Cellular Automata spatial modeling. The Method used to predict land cover changes is by modeling Cellular Automata. Driving factors used in this research, are: slope, elevation, distance from roads, distance from the river, distance from shoreline, and distance from the central government. From 2008 to 2017 Mataram had a significant decrease of agricultural land area by (-)12,63% and the increase of the land and settlement building by 26,35%. The result of land cover prediction of 2031 shows agricultural area reduce by (-)15,18% and sharp increase in built and settlement area by 20,52%.