Bus load forecasting method considering user interaction response in electricity market environment

3rd International Conference on Energy Engineering and Environmental Protection

能源学;生态环境科学

Cai, Qiuna^1 ; Liu, Sijie^1 ; Zhang, Qiaoyu^1 ; Yang, Yun^1 ; Yan, Binjie^1

Electric Power Dispatching Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co. Ltd., Guangzhou, GUANGDONG

510600, China^1

关键词: Bus load forecasting;    Calculation models;    Electricity prices;    Guangdong Province;    Interaction analysis;    Load forecasting;    Price elasticity;    User interaction;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/227/3/032033/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/227/3/032033

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

To improve the accuracy of bus load forecasting under the environment of electricity market, a bus load forecasting framework considering user interaction response is proposed. Since bus load components are complex and the response of each load to real-time electricity price is different, the identification and proportion calculation model of bus load components is firstly established. Secondly, the interactive response models of each load to real-time electricity price are established from the perspective of overall price elasticity and time-price difference elasticity. Thirdly, four different forecasting strategies are proposed with considering of electricity price elasticity, and the sequence of interaction analysis and load forecasting. Finally, a case study is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting framework using the actual bus load data of a certain area in Guangdong Province.