The Long-Term Forecasting of the Mongolian Energy Demand and Supply Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Model

LEAP;energy planning;scenario;Mongolia;BAU;EE;and RE;658

공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공 ;

University:서울대학교 대학원

关键词: LEAP;    energy planning;    scenario;    Mongolia;    BAU;    EE;    and RE;    658;   

Others  :  http://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/122547/1/000000017334.pdf

美国|英语

来源: Seoul National University Open Repository

【 摘 要 】

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is one of the mostimportant topics in relation to Mongolia due to the country’s abundant naturalresources, which offer great opportunities for achieving independent,sustainable, and green energy development if managed properly. In this thesis,an overview of the current situation of Mongolia’s energy sector and its roleand contribution in the country’s economy and environment, and acomprehensive assessment of the sector, are provided. Most importantly, thelong-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model was used toforecast the future energy supply and demand and to build and comparepossible scenarios that could sustain economic development, environmentalsustainability, and energy security in the country.In this thesis, three scenarios for long-term energy development in Mongoliaby 2040 were built using the LEAP model, and 2010 was set as the base year.The forecasting of the energy demand and supply was shown as a business-asusual(BAU) scenario, based on the existing national energy plans and trends,and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available inMongolia, such as hydro, wind, and solar energy, were suggested as theiirenewable energy (REN) scenario while improving the energy efficiency inevery way that makes economic sense was assumed and analyzed in theenergy efficiency (EE) scenario. Each scenario can represent a distinctivedevelopment pathway with different characteristics, which can be applied toMongolia’s energy sector.