AquaCrop을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 미래 논벼 물발자국 변화 분석

AquaCrop;물발자국;녹색 물발자국;청색 물발자국;기후변화;712

농업생명과학대학 생태조경·지역시스템공학부 ;

University:서울대학교 대학원

关键词: AquaCrop;    물발자국;    녹색 물발자국;    청색 물발자국;    기후변화;    712;   

Others  :  http://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/125506/1/000000141824.pdf

美国|英语

来源: Seoul National University Open Repository

【 摘 要 】

Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and drought frequency. Climate change impact influences on water management and crop production. It is critical issue in agricultural industry. Rice is a staple cereal crop in South Korea and Korea uses a ponding system for its paddy fields which requires a significant amount of water. In addition, water supply has inter-relationship with crop production which indicates water productivity. Therefore, it is important to assess overall impacts of climate change on water resource and crop production.A water footprint concept is an indicator which shows relationship between water use and crop yield. In addition, it generally composed of three components depending on water resources: green (effective rainfall), blue (irrigation water), grey water (dilution water). The aim of study is to analysis the Water footprint on paddy rice under climate change scenarios with temporal change on transplanting date on paddy rice under climate change scenarios with temporal change of transplanting date and growing season. The downscaled climate data from HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario was applied as future periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), and historical climate data was set to base line (1990s). Considering agro-climatic zones, Suwon and Jeonju were selected for study area. A yield of paddy rice was simulated by using FAO-AquaCrop 5.0 model, which is a water-driven crop model. Model was calibrated by adjusting parameters and was validated by Mann-Whitney U test statistically. The optimal transplanting date and growing period of paddy rice were determined using AquaCrop model. Using water footprint conception, the green water use and blue water savings were analyzed by applying the optimal phenology of paddy rice in light of climate change. It is necessary to secure additional water resources to adapt the climate change. The results are expected to be useful for paddy water management and operation of water supply system and apply in establishing long-term policies for agricultural water resources.