Greater London in the 21st century : assessing coastal flooding mitigation preparedness and regional population risk in the face of projected sea-level rise.

climate change;sea-level rise;21st century;mitigation;adaptation;London

Nathan K Wright

University:University of Louisville

Department:Geography and Geosciences

关键词: climate change;    sea-level rise;    21st century;    mitigation;    adaptation;    London;   

Others  :  https://ir.library.louisville.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3987&context=etd

美国|英语

来源: The Universite of Louisville's Institutional Repository

【 摘 要 】

Recent projections of +6-9m sea-level rise (SLR) over the next several decades present many social challenges for coastal regions during the 21st century. These projections were applied to Greater London, UK as areal interpolated historical census data was overlaid on a 50m DEM alongside a polyline projection of the Thames Barrier. Population was projected to milestones of 2041, 2071, and 2101 using a capped, aggregated growth rate for each polygon while SLR was simulated for 1m, 5m, and 9m scenarios. The Thames Barrier maintained integrity for 1m and 5m scenarios but was breached at 9m. Population continued to increase in vulnerable areas as the floodplain expanded potential and presents a call to action for global authorities to both reduce social influences upon climate change and develop mitigative strategies to combat potential adverse effects during the 21st century.