Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

Earth's Future

Benjamin P. Horton¹  Robert E. Kopp²  Andra J. Garner³ 

[1] Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological University Singapore;Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Rutgers University Piscataway NJ USA;Department of Environmental Science Rowan University Glassboro NJ USA;

关键词: tropical cyclones;    climate change;    storm tracks;    U.S. Atlantic coast;    21st century;   

DOI  :  10.1029/2021EF002326

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre‐industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high‐emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre‐industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.

【 授权许可】

Unknown